* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/22/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 49 58 65 73 77 77 74 70 66 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 49 58 65 73 62 39 31 30 26 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 40 42 47 54 62 59 37 30 36 38 SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 8 10 5 1 7 6 9 8 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -1 -2 0 0 3 -1 0 7 10 2 4 SHEAR DIR 200 205 202 190 198 155 16 122 184 199 241 256 267 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.4 28.5 27.8 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 151 149 146 151 152 158 142 132 130 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 139 142 140 138 142 143 148 131 120 117 115 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.3 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 7 8 6 9 7 10 8 12 10 700-500 MB RH 56 56 58 59 57 63 59 63 56 51 44 43 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 14 13 12 15 15 14 14 11 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 63 65 72 75 79 82 64 66 52 42 20 29 13 200 MB DIV 66 56 57 54 41 43 42 79 92 57 8 -12 -11 LAND (KM) 265 251 236 180 131 39 104 138 -31 -129 -3 100 191 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.1 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.4 19.5 20.5 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 80.9 81.1 81.2 81.8 82.4 84.0 85.4 86.9 88.5 89.8 90.6 91.4 92.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 3 6 7 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 37 21 17 9 6 18 79 85 86 36 0 1 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 23. 30. 38. 42. 42. 39. 35. 31. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/22/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/22/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/22/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)