* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/22/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 10 10 19 20 23 31 45 38 31 22 27 29 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 9 11 13 6 -1 4 0 3 5 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 239 237 218 228 241 240 251 261 260 248 243 251 266 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 138 135 132 128 125 120 117 114 113 112 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 134 129 125 118 114 108 104 100 98 97 96 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.8 -55.5 -55.9 -55.6 -55.8 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 75 75 78 72 68 61 59 59 54 53 49 44 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 11 9 6 4 3 2 2 2 4 7 850 MB ENV VOR -1 6 8 -3 -10 -32 -39 -33 -28 -12 0 9 17 200 MB DIV 64 62 80 88 97 65 31 30 24 30 -6 5 -14 LAND (KM) 814 852 904 945 995 1094 1162 1199 1223 1245 1253 1276 1319 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.5 14.4 15.3 16.1 17.7 18.9 20.2 21.2 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 24.7 25.3 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.3 27.9 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 6 5 4 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):334/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -10. -15. -18. -20. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -15. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/22/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/22/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)