* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/22/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 50 57 66 72 71 69 65 62 59 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 50 57 66 72 42 32 32 28 25 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 40 43 48 56 66 41 31 35 37 39 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 7 6 4 2 9 8 12 13 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -4 -1 -2 1 2 0 3 6 0 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 197 214 209 206 189 177 151 184 239 259 258 262 259 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.4 28.8 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 145 145 151 153 157 147 135 131 130 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 137 134 135 142 144 147 136 122 118 117 118 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 9 7 9 9 10 10 12 11 13 700-500 MB RH 59 57 59 57 62 64 63 58 53 48 47 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 11 13 11 9 7 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 59 66 66 68 74 65 67 43 28 11 12 12 -2 200 MB DIV 59 71 56 47 39 40 79 69 54 -3 -5 30 16 LAND (KM) 210 173 140 114 80 78 149 21 -126 -39 53 133 202 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.1 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.6 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 81.6 82.0 82.4 83.0 83.5 84.9 86.5 88.0 89.4 90.5 91.2 91.7 92.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 6 8 8 7 7 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 47 24 24 49 71 77 93 83 0 32 32 45 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 31. 37. 37. 34. 30. 27. 24. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/22/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/22/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/22/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)