* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/22/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 23 25 36 41 28 30 21 23 23 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 9 14 17 12 0 0 3 1 3 6 4 3 SHEAR DIR 244 223 224 235 238 241 254 267 252 241 246 261 270 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 134 131 129 124 119 115 112 112 112 113 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 133 129 124 120 113 107 101 97 96 97 98 99 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -53.6 -54.2 -54.5 -55.5 -55.6 -56.2 -55.6 -55.8 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 76 78 75 72 64 62 59 52 48 45 42 37 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 9 8 5 3 2 4 7 8 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 -10 -17 -33 -44 -28 -29 -21 9 1 20 21 200 MB DIV 47 84 103 121 88 28 23 35 50 -2 2 -20 -12 LAND (KM) 825 859 907 950 1002 1013 1031 1047 1055 1067 1097 1142 1193 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.8 15.8 16.8 17.7 19.1 20.4 21.4 21.9 22.1 22.0 21.9 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 25.1 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.6 28.0 28.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 8 7 6 4 2 1 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 11 11 11 10 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 12 CX,CY: -3/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -4. -9. -14. -17. -18. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/22/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/22/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)