* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/23/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 51 55 63 70 73 72 68 64 58 54 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 51 55 63 70 48 34 33 29 23 19 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 52 59 66 49 33 29 35 36 37 SHEAR (KT) 9 13 11 3 1 5 7 6 14 17 25 30 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 0 2 0 1 2 2 0 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 196 220 205 228 284 212 176 217 231 252 247 261 261 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.4 28.4 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 145 146 148 151 157 157 141 132 130 129 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 135 135 137 140 143 148 146 130 120 116 115 116 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -52.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 9 7 9 7 10 9 13 11 13 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 64 67 64 66 58 56 51 48 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 12 10 10 12 10 8 5 4 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 62 62 68 75 60 60 32 28 6 5 10 0 200 MB DIV 74 61 53 47 62 57 84 58 36 5 0 4 13 LAND (KM) 147 109 81 41 17 91 53 -95 -109 4 132 205 281 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.6 17.0 17.5 18.1 19.0 20.1 21.1 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 82.1 82.6 83.1 83.8 84.5 86.2 87.7 89.1 90.3 91.2 91.8 92.3 92.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 49 77 76 82 90 95 0 33 46 41 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 23. 30. 33. 32. 28. 24. 18. 14. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/23/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/23/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/23/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)