* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/23/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 17 21 24 24 31 39 38 36 27 22 25 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 14 12 5 1 2 0 5 1 0 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 234 227 238 237 239 244 250 256 242 258 275 266 259 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 130 127 124 120 116 113 110 110 112 112 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 127 123 118 114 108 103 99 96 95 98 98 98 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -54.8 -55.3 -55.9 -56.1 -56.1 -56.2 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 77 74 71 67 61 57 53 52 46 45 41 38 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 5 4 3 3 3 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -12 -13 -21 -33 -34 -40 -38 -32 -13 -2 8 0 200 MB DIV 72 99 127 107 86 29 31 28 35 10 6 -10 -2 LAND (KM) 850 907 975 1031 1031 1061 1131 1173 1218 1271 1352 1456 1559 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.4 19.2 20.5 21.8 22.7 23.3 23.5 23.5 23.7 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 25.4 25.8 26.2 26.5 26.7 27.2 27.9 28.3 28.7 29.2 30.0 31.0 32.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 3 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 9 9 8 5 4 1 2 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 15 CX,CY: -3/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -11. -16. -20. -21. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -13. -16. -18. -17. -15. -15. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/23/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/23/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)