* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/23/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 48 51 57 63 65 63 61 57 54 50 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 48 51 57 46 33 29 29 26 23 19 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 48 50 56 47 33 29 33 34 35 36 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 5 5 5 5 5 11 20 22 26 24 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 220 222 257 256 269 158 213 214 252 260 272 267 272 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.6 28.7 28.0 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 149 151 154 161 145 135 131 131 132 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 137 140 143 146 151 134 124 120 118 115 116 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 8 10 8 10 10 13 12 15 13 700-500 MB RH 58 59 63 66 63 63 62 59 56 46 40 42 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 8 8 7 7 6 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 61 68 76 62 54 36 16 1 -11 -6 -20 -28 200 MB DIV 38 29 30 33 52 74 62 38 7 -11 3 -3 12 LAND (KM) 98 67 22 28 52 78 -81 -153 -15 115 290 341 319 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.5 19.7 21.3 22.3 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 82.8 83.5 84.2 85.0 85.7 87.4 89.0 90.2 91.1 92.0 93.1 93.3 92.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 7 8 7 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 50 71 77 76 76 90 97 0 34 37 39 46 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 25. 24. 21. 17. 14. 10. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/23/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/23/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/23/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)