* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/23/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 63 66 72 78 78 74 70 65 59 54 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 63 66 72 49 34 29 30 24 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 59 63 67 75 52 34 29 32 33 34 35 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 2 2 3 7 7 13 17 24 22 29 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 1 3 -1 0 0 1 -3 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 237 268 253 184 210 188 198 220 255 261 269 266 256 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.5 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 150 151 157 159 144 135 129 128 127 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 139 142 143 148 148 133 123 117 115 113 111 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 7 9 7 10 8 12 11 14 11 700-500 MB RH 64 67 70 67 64 67 61 57 54 53 49 45 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 65 74 59 53 51 37 30 14 22 2 7 17 200 MB DIV 31 18 32 43 50 90 74 49 6 3 13 11 23 LAND (KM) 81 44 28 37 59 43 -91 -148 -66 22 155 241 290 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.8 20.0 20.7 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 83.1 83.8 84.5 85.4 86.3 87.9 89.1 90.4 91.6 92.4 92.5 93.1 93.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 49 77 76 78 83 93 96 0 32 30 44 38 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 22. 28. 28. 24. 20. 15. 9. 4. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/23/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 21% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/23/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/23/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 2( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)