* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/23/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 68 72 79 80 79 76 72 67 62 57 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 68 72 63 39 31 32 28 23 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 65 69 73 67 40 31 33 36 38 39 40 SHEAR (KT) 5 1 1 3 5 10 9 14 18 17 23 26 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 4 3 -3 1 1 1 3 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 271 281 248 220 158 183 199 244 258 262 254 262 263 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.6 28.7 28.0 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 149 151 152 161 146 136 127 124 125 127 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 141 143 144 153 136 125 116 110 110 112 115 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 9 9 10 9 13 11 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 68 71 68 64 68 60 57 55 47 46 49 54 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 66 54 44 49 37 31 18 25 30 20 15 -14 200 MB DIV 2 15 33 49 73 80 55 17 3 11 0 16 26 LAND (KM) 47 28 36 68 91 -38 -170 -55 42 146 216 271 341 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.3 21.0 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 83.8 84.6 85.3 86.2 87.0 88.6 90.2 91.6 92.9 93.6 93.9 94.2 93.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 4 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 77 77 78 82 82 96 0 32 25 38 31 35 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 24. 25. 24. 21. 17. 12. 7. 2. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/23/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 79.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/23/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/23/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)