* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/23/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 24 20 17 18 18 19 23 28 30 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 24 20 17 18 18 19 23 28 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 25 22 18 16 16 17 19 21 24 26 SHEAR (KT) 40 39 46 44 43 26 17 18 23 24 24 29 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 7 6 10 5 1 2 -2 2 0 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 229 232 233 232 235 222 213 230 236 248 252 251 262 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 122 122 121 118 116 117 119 119 119 119 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 113 112 112 111 107 104 103 104 103 103 103 101 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -55.4 -55.3 -56.4 -56.6 -57.7 -57.8 -58.2 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 68 67 65 65 69 67 66 65 61 61 58 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 9 1 5 0 -2 -1 3 17 0 -8 -32 -52 200 MB DIV 84 117 79 71 59 22 51 29 58 17 29 18 0 LAND (KM) 1356 1408 1464 1533 1606 1758 1889 2025 2171 2316 2316 2174 2028 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.6 21.3 23.0 24.6 25.8 26.8 27.7 28.4 29.2 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 29.7 30.4 31.0 31.8 32.5 34.0 35.2 36.4 37.7 39.0 40.5 42.0 43.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 9 8 5 5 6 7 9 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 821 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -12. -12. -11. -7. -2. 0. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/23/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/23/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)