* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/24/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 63 68 73 75 71 68 64 61 56 50 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 63 68 50 34 29 31 27 24 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 58 61 64 50 34 29 32 33 34 34 33 SHEAR (KT) 2 2 6 4 8 9 15 17 20 23 27 34 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 0 1 0 0 -1 1 -2 -1 -2 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 253 262 224 189 179 203 211 243 243 238 233 242 249 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.6 28.5 27.9 27.3 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 151 153 156 161 143 134 126 125 128 131 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 141 143 145 148 152 132 124 115 114 115 116 115 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 9 9 7 10 8 13 10 14 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 70 66 66 69 63 57 51 46 46 46 52 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 8 9 8 6 4 4 3 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 56 47 51 57 33 31 20 32 24 26 8 -21 200 MB DIV 30 28 45 67 98 74 46 -13 6 7 26 33 34 LAND (KM) 44 44 64 86 76 -86 -147 -55 47 167 208 190 255 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.1 18.9 19.9 21.0 22.0 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 84.2 85.0 85.8 86.7 87.6 89.1 90.6 91.8 93.1 94.1 94.9 95.4 95.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 77 76 81 81 90 96 0 30 24 29 38 46 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 20. 16. 13. 9. 6. 1. -5. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/24/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 81.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/24/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/24/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 0( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)