* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/24/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 26 25 24 26 26 28 32 36 36 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 26 25 24 26 26 28 32 36 36 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 24 22 19 17 18 20 22 25 28 31 SHEAR (KT) 50 48 55 46 37 20 16 20 26 23 23 24 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 5 3 0 2 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 230 228 231 230 226 213 220 240 261 254 242 251 264 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 121 120 120 118 119 119 120 123 124 124 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 113 112 111 109 106 105 104 105 107 108 108 104 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -55.1 -55.3 -55.8 -56.1 -56.8 -57.4 -57.3 -57.2 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 67 69 66 70 65 66 62 57 56 57 60 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 11 25 24 20 20 15 27 24 18 6 -14 -34 200 MB DIV 99 88 85 64 32 45 38 36 33 11 31 10 -2 LAND (KM) 1517 1588 1663 1746 1833 1974 2102 2230 2365 2493 2390 2267 2132 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.3 22.1 23.5 24.7 25.4 25.9 26.4 26.9 27.6 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 31.4 32.2 33.0 33.9 34.7 36.1 37.3 38.5 39.8 41.2 42.6 44.1 45.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 11 11 10 9 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 9 8 7 7 10 10 11 12 14 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 818 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -19. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 14. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. -4. -2. 2. 7. 6. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/24/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 47.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/24/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)