* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/24/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 74 78 81 78 74 70 64 60 54 47 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 74 63 39 31 28 28 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 67 72 63 39 30 28 33 33 34 34 32 SHEAR (KT) 3 6 4 7 8 9 16 21 21 25 28 38 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -2 1 0 4 -2 0 -2 0 -7 -8 SHEAR DIR 292 242 187 146 180 197 229 236 234 233 239 245 258 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.6 28.8 28.1 27.6 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 153 156 161 147 137 130 125 126 129 132 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 142 145 150 153 136 126 119 113 113 115 117 117 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 9 9 8 10 10 12 11 13 11 10 4 700-500 MB RH 71 66 67 68 64 60 55 52 46 48 50 59 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 10 10 7 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 36 40 50 42 28 14 17 19 0 3 -21 -35 200 MB DIV 29 30 56 96 97 52 -1 -6 10 9 31 35 14 LAND (KM) 56 76 97 62 -38 -185 -88 -11 122 220 254 257 337 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.8 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.5 22.5 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 85.1 85.9 86.7 87.7 88.6 90.1 91.3 92.4 93.5 94.3 94.7 94.9 94.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 76 82 82 90 96 0 32 28 38 34 40 48 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 18. 14. 10. 4. 0. -6. -13. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/24/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 85.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 29% is 8.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/24/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/24/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 3( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)