* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/24/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 29 29 30 34 36 39 44 48 48 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 29 29 30 34 36 39 44 48 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 25 23 21 21 23 27 31 36 41 46 SHEAR (KT) 58 52 44 36 24 9 13 13 19 17 13 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 0 0 0 -4 -1 -1 -1 -1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 230 231 232 226 222 235 243 250 232 237 241 255 269 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 121 120 120 120 121 122 124 126 124 123 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 112 112 110 108 106 106 107 108 110 108 107 104 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -55.4 -55.8 -56.3 -56.9 -57.3 -57.7 -56.8 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 67 67 68 65 59 60 61 58 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 30 36 33 32 33 28 31 11 7 -8 -33 -57 200 MB DIV 87 87 64 43 22 27 21 70 34 49 -14 4 -10 LAND (KM) 1650 1736 1824 1910 1995 2138 2263 2409 2530 2397 2276 2157 2057 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.6 23.7 24.5 25.2 25.9 26.7 27.4 28.1 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 32.8 33.7 34.6 35.5 36.3 37.7 38.9 40.3 41.6 43.0 44.5 46.1 47.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 9 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 8 9 9 9 11 12 14 16 12 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 805 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 6. 9. 14. 18. 18. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/24/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/24/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)