* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/24/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 82 87 88 86 80 75 70 65 60 55 49 V (KT) LAND 70 76 68 53 41 31 31 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 75 70 54 42 31 33 35 36 38 40 41 40 SHEAR (KT) 2 3 5 7 9 14 16 18 15 21 23 28 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 3 3 2 0 1 -2 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 271 190 146 190 205 222 235 237 222 221 227 231 252 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.4 28.8 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 157 160 158 147 136 130 126 124 127 129 130 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 150 152 148 137 125 118 113 111 113 114 114 115 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 9 9 7 11 9 12 9 12 8 10 3 700-500 MB RH 66 60 63 58 58 56 52 44 47 47 54 65 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 10 8 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 34 46 31 15 9 -9 2 -9 -8 -11 -25 -54 200 MB DIV 38 60 89 100 67 36 -23 -4 12 15 10 34 -22 LAND (KM) 115 85 -21 -106 -168 -67 11 106 172 182 165 152 194 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.6 22.4 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 86.4 87.4 88.4 89.2 90.0 91.1 92.3 93.3 94.2 95.0 95.6 96.0 95.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 91 89 93 94 0 0 29 37 29 37 46 49 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 18. 16. 10. 5. 0. -5. -10. -15. -21. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/24/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 44% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 42% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 41% is 12.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/24/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/24/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)