* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/24/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 87 90 90 87 80 75 70 63 56 51 45 V (KT) LAND 75 67 51 41 35 33 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 71 53 41 35 30 37 39 41 43 44 45 43 SHEAR (KT) 6 12 9 11 11 15 16 14 18 24 21 27 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 1 2 6 -2 6 -1 -2 1 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 153 139 171 194 195 233 220 224 216 217 220 225 249 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.2 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 154 145 138 130 125 124 126 127 128 128 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 153 146 135 128 119 113 110 111 112 111 111 111 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 7 10 9 13 10 12 9 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 63 60 57 54 51 38 41 44 48 56 63 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 10 7 6 3 4 4 3 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 38 22 10 12 -1 5 11 -14 -5 -16 -29 -55 200 MB DIV 82 98 98 63 30 0 -17 6 11 14 24 17 -27 LAND (KM) 74 -26 -127 -141 -69 0 103 167 209 192 134 105 122 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 87.5 88.5 89.4 90.2 91.0 92.4 93.6 94.3 94.7 95.2 95.9 96.2 96.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 89 87 0 0 0 28 37 32 35 38 49 47 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 15. 15. 12. 5. 0. -5. -12. -19. -24. -30. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/24/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 40% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 29% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/24/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/24/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)