* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/25/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 86 87 86 79 74 68 64 58 53 46 41 V (KT) LAND 80 57 44 37 32 30 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 59 45 37 32 33 35 37 39 41 42 41 38 SHEAR (KT) 8 12 11 11 14 16 19 14 20 24 27 29 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 4 5 1 -2 0 -4 -1 -1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 150 194 209 217 219 234 240 236 226 237 240 260 274 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 152 145 140 132 128 127 130 131 131 130 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 148 140 132 128 120 116 114 116 115 115 112 110 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 10 10 8 13 9 13 8 7 3 5 700-500 MB RH 66 62 58 60 57 49 45 44 45 50 59 55 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 7 5 6 3 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 16 7 9 7 -19 -2 -15 -14 -20 -33 -57 -71 200 MB DIV 76 69 49 34 31 -21 -1 11 23 1 20 -22 -30 LAND (KM) 0 -74 -148 -153 -99 22 111 227 290 224 194 142 157 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.5 21.5 22.4 23.1 23.8 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 88.2 88.9 89.6 90.1 90.5 91.6 92.5 93.4 94.3 95.2 95.9 96.4 96.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 90 94 0 0 0 35 36 32 39 47 49 43 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. -1. -6. -10. -14. -16. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 6. -1. -6. -12. -16. -22. -27. -34. -39. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/25/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/25/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/25/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)