* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/25/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 64 62 58 54 51 49 45 40 35 30 V (KT) LAND 65 48 39 34 36 31 28 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 48 38 33 36 38 38 39 40 40 38 34 29 SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 13 17 18 18 16 25 27 41 31 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 5 6 1 3 -3 -1 0 -8 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 192 220 230 233 254 249 258 222 237 238 253 276 292 SST (C) 29.2 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 145 140 136 133 128 129 131 132 130 130 127 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 134 129 125 122 116 116 117 116 113 113 110 106 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 9 12 11 13 9 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 57 56 55 50 41 38 38 39 50 50 37 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 6 5 5 3 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 7 8 8 -3 0 4 -22 -7 -27 -39 -82 -115 200 MB DIV 65 36 34 30 0 -18 0 17 27 0 -13 -30 -26 LAND (KM) -116 -159 -91 -22 22 152 285 243 225 183 164 203 207 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.9 21.1 22.1 23.1 24.0 25.0 26.2 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 89.3 90.0 90.6 91.3 91.9 93.0 94.1 94.9 95.6 96.0 95.8 95.2 94.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 32 36 38 35 42 48 45 32 23 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -20. -25. -30. -35. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/25/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/25/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/25/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)