* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/25/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 39 46 52 55 56 54 54 54 51 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 39 46 52 55 56 54 54 54 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 34 39 44 46 47 48 50 50 SHEAR (KT) 25 14 8 6 8 10 13 24 24 28 21 24 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 234 206 181 179 156 208 233 239 238 236 262 279 294 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 121 120 120 120 119 115 113 112 115 116 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 112 110 108 108 106 103 98 94 93 97 99 98 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.3 -55.1 -55.8 -56.1 -56.0 -56.8 -57.0 -57.9 -57.5 -57.1 -56.5 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 73 71 63 61 57 52 44 39 39 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 9 10 11 12 13 12 10 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 34 34 34 39 34 40 17 1 -13 -33 -50 -50 -60 200 MB DIV 64 48 64 67 51 86 18 42 4 -1 -31 -29 -27 LAND (KM) 2035 2061 2087 2117 2151 2248 2341 2311 2247 2232 2201 2110 1961 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.7 22.7 23.6 24.5 26.1 27.5 28.8 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.9 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 36.6 36.9 37.2 37.5 37.8 38.6 39.3 39.7 39.8 39.9 40.6 41.8 43.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 2 2 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 4 3 6 6 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 22. 25. 26. 24. 24. 24. 21. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/25/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 10/25/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/25/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)