* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/25/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 31 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 31 31 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 34 31 32 30 27 26 25 25 23 21 18 16 SHEAR (KT) 8 9 13 16 15 21 12 22 26 34 36 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 3 7 5 -2 1 -3 -1 0 -6 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 229 237 222 243 235 247 232 229 246 255 287 299 316 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 135 130 128 125 123 124 126 128 129 131 129 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 124 119 117 115 111 110 111 111 112 114 112 104 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.6 -54.6 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 9 13 9 13 7 4 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 59 56 57 50 47 44 38 40 46 55 41 27 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 9 5 -9 -18 -2 -17 -22 -21 -37 -69 -93 -114 200 MB DIV 22 9 13 -15 -25 -4 11 28 5 2 -59 -57 -49 LAND (KM) -169 -103 -39 22 77 211 302 282 296 274 278 324 247 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.8 19.3 20.4 21.4 22.4 23.3 24.2 25.2 26.3 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 89.9 90.5 91.0 91.6 92.1 93.2 94.1 94.6 94.9 95.0 94.5 93.7 92.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 28 31 32 32 35 43 44 43 32 32 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -4. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -10. -16. -20. -23. -24. -23. -21. -19. -13. -7. -2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -20. -24. -25. -26. -23. -22. -21. -21. -18. -18. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/25/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -40.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/25/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/25/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)