* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/25/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 24 21 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 11 17 19 17 19 18 13 23 31 42 23 20 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 7 7 2 2 -3 0 -1 -10 -3 -7 N/A SHEAR DIR 223 231 248 243 240 252 218 233 237 264 291 301 N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.2 26.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 128 125 123 124 126 128 129 130 125 113 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 117 117 115 112 111 112 113 113 113 109 98 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 9 12 11 12 8 2 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 52 47 43 40 38 38 48 36 22 11 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 3 4 4 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 3 -4 -15 2 -3 -23 -10 -44 -68 -102 -117 N/A 200 MB DIV 12 13 -5 -22 -18 6 26 36 7 -36 -54 -54 N/A LAND (KM) -78 -22 22 94 174 307 259 255 247 251 266 172 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.5 20.1 21.2 22.3 23.3 24.4 25.6 26.8 28.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.8 91.3 91.8 92.4 93.0 93.9 94.8 95.3 95.2 94.7 93.9 93.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 28 32 32 34 30 43 45 36 31 24 11 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. -2. -8. -10. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -9. -15. -20. -23. -24. -23. -21. -18. -13. -7. -3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -21. -23. -24. -23. -19. -19. -20. -18. -15. -14. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/25/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/25/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/25/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)