* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/25/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 41 46 50 54 55 54 53 50 51 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 41 46 50 54 55 54 53 50 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 46 49 52 55 55 53 SHEAR (KT) 12 7 8 13 17 20 24 13 17 23 30 34 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 216 215 257 240 238 237 230 231 246 271 284 291 248 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.2 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 123 123 122 122 120 120 120 119 118 115 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 108 107 107 106 106 102 102 103 102 101 100 92 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.7 -56.2 -56.3 -56.2 -57.1 -57.3 -57.3 -56.6 -56.3 -55.7 -55.8 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 63 60 57 57 57 51 45 40 37 38 43 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 12 11 9 7 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 55 48 52 66 70 45 16 -34 -50 -71 -78 -91 -3 200 MB DIV 45 25 21 44 65 17 38 -12 -5 -33 -22 -5 61 LAND (KM) 2353 2411 2468 2522 2509 2393 2269 2195 2138 2072 1993 1855 1575 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.7 25.1 25.6 26.0 26.8 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.6 29.1 30.2 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 39.8 40.4 40.9 41.4 41.9 42.8 43.7 44.7 46.0 47.4 48.7 49.8 50.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 14 15 14 12 11 8 6 9 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 781 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 20. 24. 25. 24. 23. 20. 21. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/25/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 10/25/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/25/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)