* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/26/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 50 53 54 53 51 48 45 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 50 53 54 53 51 48 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 39 42 45 48 51 53 51 48 SHEAR (KT) 13 9 16 18 17 16 23 19 17 24 36 39 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -4 -1 1 0 0 -2 0 -4 -2 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 171 182 214 233 241 233 236 229 259 261 274 293 278 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 122 122 121 120 119 119 121 121 121 120 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 107 106 105 104 102 100 101 103 104 104 103 99 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -56.2 -56.2 -56.1 -56.2 -57.0 -57.0 -57.1 -56.5 -56.2 -55.7 -55.0 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 62 60 58 54 48 43 38 34 34 35 43 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 12 10 9 7 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 49 54 73 73 60 40 -2 -46 -58 -61 -63 -77 -44 200 MB DIV 64 52 73 71 47 13 14 7 -5 -20 -28 -11 37 LAND (KM) 2377 2431 2485 2501 2450 2348 2275 2249 2237 2203 2121 2048 1895 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.5 25.9 26.3 26.6 27.3 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.4 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 40.0 40.5 41.0 41.4 41.8 42.6 43.2 44.0 45.1 46.4 47.7 48.9 49.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 12 14 9 9 8 12 12 9 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 23. 21. 18. 15. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/26/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 10/26/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/26/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)