* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/26/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 22 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 22 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 23 22 21 21 20 19 17 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 23 21 20 21 17 17 28 32 38 23 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 5 -1 1 1 -3 -3 -6 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 261 256 254 255 241 247 250 271 308 312 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.5 26.7 25.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 122 123 124 126 128 130 129 120 105 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 113 111 111 112 112 113 114 113 105 92 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.5 -55.3 -55.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 14 13 11 12 8 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 43 40 39 39 35 37 45 38 22 11 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -21 -3 -6 -6 -29 -11 -52 -88 -112 -116 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -27 -40 -19 -7 13 17 18 9 -44 -58 -70 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 44 110 184 257 278 238 234 224 273 227 64 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.3 22.5 23.7 24.9 26.2 27.5 29.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.2 92.8 93.4 93.9 94.3 95.1 95.5 95.2 94.5 93.6 92.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 37 29 27 34 43 46 28 27 24 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -2. -7. -11. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. -9. -14. -18. -17. -19. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/26/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/26/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/26/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)