* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/26/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 46 50 52 53 53 52 48 45 43 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 46 50 52 53 53 52 48 45 43 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 43 46 48 50 52 54 55 53 51 SHEAR (KT) 13 15 18 17 12 23 18 21 19 23 36 29 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 3 3 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 201 214 228 237 235 223 239 243 267 268 286 296 288 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 121 119 119 118 117 119 120 120 118 115 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 105 104 102 102 99 98 101 102 103 101 100 94 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.1 -56.1 -56.5 -56.9 -57.0 -57.2 -56.8 -56.5 -56.0 -55.7 -55.7 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 54 50 46 43 40 36 36 37 49 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 10 8 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 50 66 66 51 39 18 -20 -41 -51 -48 -58 -74 -31 200 MB DIV 56 57 78 45 15 39 -1 0 -27 -17 -53 36 65 LAND (KM) 2424 2473 2468 2421 2373 2268 2230 2223 2189 2130 2027 1878 1634 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.3 28.1 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.3 29.0 30.2 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 40.4 40.9 41.3 41.6 41.9 42.5 43.0 43.8 44.9 46.3 47.5 48.4 48.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 13 11 9 8 6 7 8 6 6 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 13. 10. 8. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/26/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 10/26/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/26/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)