* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/26/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 45 47 50 52 54 53 49 47 43 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 45 47 50 52 54 53 49 47 43 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 42 45 47 50 53 56 57 54 49 SHEAR (KT) 17 13 13 14 18 21 19 15 18 24 38 27 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 0 -1 0 -3 -2 -3 0 -3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 240 238 234 217 224 232 233 257 267 277 298 295 302 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 121 120 119 117 117 120 121 121 118 115 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 105 104 103 101 97 98 102 105 104 102 99 94 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.9 -56.2 -56.5 -56.7 -57.0 -57.1 -56.7 -56.4 -56.1 -55.5 -56.4 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 62 59 57 53 52 45 39 36 35 32 39 51 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 13 13 11 10 10 11 10 10 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 61 66 54 42 37 0 -18 -32 -27 -31 -52 -71 -33 200 MB DIV 52 55 37 23 21 20 15 -10 -19 -31 -7 32 36 LAND (KM) 2421 2456 2491 2444 2388 2315 2318 2320 2277 2181 2053 1899 1686 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.0 26.4 26.9 27.3 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.5 28.0 28.9 30.2 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 40.4 40.7 41.0 41.3 41.5 41.8 42.0 42.8 44.1 45.6 46.8 47.4 47.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 2 2 5 6 7 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 11 9 7 8 12 11 8 6 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 18. 19. 18. 14. 12. 8. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/26/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 10/26/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/26/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)