* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/26/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 41 42 42 38 35 33 30 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 41 42 42 38 35 33 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 29 29 31 34 37 39 39 38 35 32 SHEAR (KT) 15 18 19 22 19 18 22 24 31 45 44 38 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 1 0 -2 -5 -1 -4 -4 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 223 226 227 229 229 248 253 283 270 287 283 290 281 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 121 120 120 120 122 124 124 124 124 123 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 105 103 103 101 102 105 107 107 106 105 105 101 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.6 -56.9 -57.1 -57.3 -57.5 -56.9 -56.3 -55.8 -54.9 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 58 55 54 51 47 41 35 32 30 32 43 53 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 11 9 8 8 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 64 58 48 44 31 -20 -28 -32 -37 -44 -54 -26 26 200 MB DIV 63 37 26 25 43 -11 -4 -38 -11 -20 18 7 35 LAND (KM) 2485 2501 2450 2406 2362 2331 2333 2278 2129 2011 1928 1929 1891 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.3 28.1 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 41.0 41.4 41.8 42.2 42.5 43.1 44.0 45.5 47.1 48.5 49.6 50.1 49.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 4 6 7 7 6 4 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 12 12 12 13 15 16 19 17 18 12 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -8. -13. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 8. 5. 3. 0. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/26/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 10/26/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/26/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)