* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/27/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 32 33 34 35 33 29 27 24 20 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 32 33 34 35 33 29 27 24 20 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 28 29 30 31 32 32 30 28 25 SHEAR (KT) 15 19 23 21 16 18 26 27 34 43 39 43 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 2 4 -4 -2 -4 -4 -1 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 236 239 238 243 254 256 274 282 284 297 293 312 300 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 121 121 121 123 125 124 125 124 124 124 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 104 104 104 103 105 108 107 108 106 104 107 104 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.7 -56.8 -56.7 -56.9 -56.4 -55.8 -55.4 -55.1 -54.3 -54.5 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 58 54 54 51 47 39 35 33 37 40 49 54 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 15 14 13 12 10 11 10 10 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 51 48 48 40 17 -4 -21 -19 -25 -20 -17 -33 -30 200 MB DIV 50 35 29 39 31 0 -13 -15 -18 -28 -14 -37 3 LAND (KM) 2512 2531 2491 2456 2422 2409 2327 2197 2083 1995 1961 1997 2096 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.8 26.1 26.7 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 41.3 41.7 42.1 42.5 42.9 43.6 44.7 46.0 47.2 48.1 48.6 48.5 48.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 5 5 3 2 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 14 15 16 17 18 20 20 19 17 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -9. -13. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -3. -6. -10. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/27/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 10/27/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/27/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)