* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/27/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 36 37 35 31 28 30 35 33 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 36 37 35 31 28 30 35 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 33 35 36 35 33 32 32 32 SHEAR (KT) 22 20 17 18 18 21 27 41 42 30 26 31 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 2 0 -3 -1 -4 -4 0 -3 1 8 SHEAR DIR 233 241 247 241 234 264 280 290 284 296 285 243 222 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.3 25.5 24.0 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 119 120 122 124 124 123 122 117 112 103 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 99 101 103 105 109 109 106 104 103 100 95 85 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -57.0 -57.0 -56.5 -56.1 -55.9 -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -56.3 -57.2 -58.1 -57.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 49 44 40 37 35 33 34 38 49 60 63 49 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 9 9 9 8 7 7 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 16 4 -9 -7 -15 -36 -32 -38 -44 -27 -1 -20 -63 200 MB DIV 32 19 1 0 4 -41 -14 -48 32 -7 51 62 44 LAND (KM) 2459 2446 2434 2432 2432 2400 2251 2138 2101 1936 1700 1552 1678 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.6 27.2 28.1 29.8 32.3 35.1 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 41.0 41.2 41.4 41.9 42.3 43.9 45.7 47.2 48.1 47.7 46.4 42.8 36.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 6 8 8 7 7 11 17 24 29 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 12 13 16 17 16 10 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -7. -11. -13. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 14. 17. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 1. -2. 0. 5. 3. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/27/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 10/27/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/27/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)