* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912010 10/27/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 33 40 52 64 73 79 86 89 91 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 33 40 52 55 38 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 29 31 36 41 50 34 29 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 3 2 6 12 8 11 6 6 8 11 17 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 3 1 0 -2 -3 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 6 229 258 291 294 281 30 158 85 124 99 113 91 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 168 168 166 161 166 163 156 154 155 157 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 173 174 174 174 174 173 173 164 161 161 163 162 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 9 11 8 11 7 11 7 10 700-500 MB RH 70 66 65 66 65 71 71 76 80 82 80 82 81 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 59 57 53 55 52 45 41 45 43 36 36 39 200 MB DIV 38 3 18 5 25 58 51 80 85 105 110 101 111 LAND (KM) 852 753 590 430 303 136 130 -21 -74 -234 -177 -133 -181 LAT (DEG N) 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.5 7.1 7.5 7.8 8.2 8.7 9.2 9.7 LONG(DEG W) 43.0 44.6 46.1 47.8 49.5 52.8 56.1 58.8 61.3 63.6 65.9 68.1 70.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 17 17 17 15 13 12 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 72 70 76 73 78 17 24 63 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 4. 13. 22. 28. 34. 39. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -1. -1. 1. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 8. 15. 27. 39. 48. 54. 61. 64. 66. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST 10/27/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912010 INVEST 10/27/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST 10/27/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)