* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 10/27/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 38 45 51 58 60 57 52 44 33 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 38 45 51 58 60 57 52 44 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 31 35 40 44 43 39 34 SHEAR (KT) 27 21 30 27 17 20 8 18 50 70 81 93 95 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -5 -1 -3 -2 -1 -3 -11 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 253 246 247 269 298 302 4 240 232 237 221 216 223 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.0 25.3 25.0 24.2 21.2 16.9 14.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 135 132 130 126 115 109 110 106 91 80 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 124 125 123 121 116 103 97 103 100 86 77 74 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.5 -55.7 -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 -56.2 -57.1 -57.3 -57.5 -57.9 -57.3 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 52 49 50 52 49 56 45 48 50 58 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 10 12 13 14 15 15 14 13 11 7 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 51 55 46 36 31 0 15 39 -12 6 4 35 100 200 MB DIV 33 13 -24 -6 44 7 74 70 66 45 67 76 58 LAND (KM) 1353 1267 1187 1090 1014 988 1178 1190 1165 1100 867 1148 1330 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.9 23.3 24.0 24.6 26.5 29.0 31.5 33.9 36.8 40.7 45.3 49.9 LONG(DEG W) 53.5 54.6 55.6 57.1 58.6 61.8 64.3 64.0 60.1 53.5 46.2 38.2 29.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 13 15 16 17 13 15 26 32 36 38 38 HEAT CONTENT 39 43 42 30 19 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. -2. -10. -17. -25. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 18. 21. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 20. 26. 33. 35. 32. 27. 19. 8. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 10/27/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 10/27/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 10/27/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)