* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/28/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 33 31 28 31 37 35 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 33 31 28 31 37 35 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 34 33 32 32 34 37 SHEAR (KT) 21 16 19 20 21 22 28 46 28 28 21 21 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 -1 -4 -1 0 -6 1 -2 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 240 246 241 241 260 276 289 295 292 292 256 223 225 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.1 25.2 23.7 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 119 121 122 125 124 123 120 116 109 100 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 99 101 103 106 109 108 106 104 102 98 91 82 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.9 -56.7 -56.1 -56.0 -55.5 -55.3 -55.3 -55.7 -56.0 -57.2 -57.0 -57.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 45 42 38 37 32 32 34 39 52 61 56 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 10 9 6 7 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -5 0 -9 -18 -21 -23 -31 -26 6 -13 -7 -26 200 MB DIV 21 12 -5 7 -15 -32 -33 -14 21 29 53 24 35 LAND (KM) 2453 2445 2437 2439 2442 2400 2250 2147 2062 1864 1654 1572 1630 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.8 27.4 28.6 30.5 33.0 35.4 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 40.9 41.1 41.3 41.8 42.3 43.9 45.8 47.2 47.9 47.5 45.5 41.8 37.0 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 5 6 8 8 7 8 12 17 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 12 13 16 17 14 8 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -2. -6. -10. -10. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 13. 16. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -6. -6. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. 1. 7. 5. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/28/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 10/28/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/28/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)