* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912010 10/28/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 34 40 52 66 74 79 85 88 89 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 34 40 52 43 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 37 43 37 30 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 6 2 6 7 8 7 1 8 16 15 21 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 6 4 1 2 2 -2 -1 0 0 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 117 218 319 309 285 300 186 86 117 125 116 109 113 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 168 166 161 161 165 159 155 154 155 155 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 174 174 174 174 174 173 169 161 159 161 161 160 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -52.4 -52.0 -53.1 -52.3 -52.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 12 10 10 10 9 9 7 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 69 65 65 61 61 71 74 78 81 83 82 82 84 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 59 53 50 49 49 44 36 36 42 37 40 48 200 MB DIV 24 33 4 11 6 44 74 75 98 99 109 70 108 LAND (KM) 739 574 421 312 222 115 90 -78 -146 -214 -204 -168 -176 LAT (DEG N) 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.8 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.3 8.6 9.0 9.5 LONG(DEG W) 44.7 46.3 47.9 49.5 51.1 54.5 57.5 60.1 62.3 64.3 66.4 68.7 70.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 17 16 14 12 10 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 71 75 73 78 94 15 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 4. 13. 22. 28. 34. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 27. 41. 49. 54. 60. 63. 64. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST 10/28/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 78.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912010 INVEST 10/28/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST 10/28/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)