* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 10/28/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 42 49 54 53 47 40 34 27 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 42 49 54 53 47 40 34 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 31 35 39 40 38 35 33 SHEAR (KT) 29 33 30 13 15 14 6 41 64 79 90 83 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -8 -6 0 0 -6 2 0 -4 -2 9 11 15 SHEAR DIR 233 241 256 280 274 331 169 221 221 217 221 228 240 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.2 25.3 24.9 23.9 17.5 15.2 12.4 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 130 128 118 110 109 104 81 78 75 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 123 123 122 120 107 99 101 97 78 75 73 72 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.5 -55.6 -55.3 -55.9 -55.9 -56.8 -57.4 -57.5 -57.6 -56.5 -55.8 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 49 47 50 49 53 49 49 47 59 61 66 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 14 14 14 14 12 11 7 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 51 37 29 20 -8 64 4 -38 -11 83 153 241 200 MB DIV 21 -20 -2 23 18 52 74 68 57 55 68 76 63 LAND (KM) 1196 1099 1013 964 951 1124 1168 1068 956 615 964 1321 583 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.4 23.8 24.8 25.7 28.4 31.6 34.6 37.9 42.4 47.7 52.7 56.6 LONG(DEG W) 55.3 56.6 57.9 59.5 61.0 63.7 64.2 60.8 55.1 48.2 39.9 29.8 17.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 17 17 16 17 24 31 37 40 40 39 HEAT CONTENT 45 38 29 19 15 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 16. 18. 19. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -3. -11. -18. -24. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 17. 24. 29. 28. 22. 15. 9. 2. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 10/28/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 10/28/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 10/28/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)