* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/28/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 40 39 37 32 29 29 31 33 30 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 40 39 37 32 29 29 31 33 30 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 38 39 40 40 39 36 35 35 37 38 SHEAR (KT) 20 20 21 24 21 27 41 43 32 26 29 33 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 1 -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 0 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 253 249 249 270 278 287 301 294 292 233 214 220 224 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.5 25.3 24.7 22.8 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 121 123 123 125 123 122 119 109 107 96 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 102 104 106 107 109 108 106 104 97 98 88 79 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -56.6 -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 -55.4 -55.3 -55.1 -56.0 -56.6 -57.4 -57.9 -58.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 5 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 40 37 36 33 33 31 34 44 64 59 49 42 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 9 9 7 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -8 -20 -31 -41 -39 -47 -52 -3 40 -6 -11 -21 200 MB DIV 12 4 11 -20 -45 -26 -35 31 38 64 47 47 46 LAND (KM) 2445 2440 2436 2414 2395 2302 2156 2061 1935 1659 1458 1445 1531 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.7 27.2 28.0 29.5 32.0 34.6 37.3 40.5 LONG(DEG W) 41.1 41.5 41.9 42.7 43.4 45.2 47.0 48.5 49.6 49.7 46.4 41.0 36.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 7 7 8 8 8 10 14 23 25 25 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 12 14 15 16 16 11 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. -6. -11. -14. -15. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 9. 11. 14. 17. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -3. -6. -6. -4. -2. -5. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/28/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 10/28/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/28/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)