* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912010 10/28/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 46 55 67 73 79 83 87 88 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 46 55 56 38 31 28 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 48 54 53 36 30 28 28 27 SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 9 14 5 3 6 9 16 14 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 7 5 3 1 2 0 2 1 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 135 325 324 273 263 304 209 92 150 118 129 97 110 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 172 170 166 161 163 168 161 155 155 157 161 161 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 173 173 173 174 173 170 160 159 161 166 164 163 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 9 11 8 11 7 10 6 9 6 700-500 MB RH 70 64 61 64 71 75 78 78 82 82 84 86 86 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 39 37 33 34 34 28 30 36 36 38 46 58 200 MB DIV 24 8 11 10 22 67 79 78 101 99 89 92 99 LAND (KM) 571 456 365 290 248 250 98 -32 -112 -58 -48 -111 -14 LAT (DEG N) 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.7 8.3 8.9 9.3 9.5 9.7 10.0 10.5 11.0 LONG(DEG W) 46.8 48.4 49.9 51.5 53.0 56.3 59.0 61.3 63.4 65.5 67.7 70.0 71.9 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 15 16 16 15 13 11 10 10 11 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 84 78 104 119 82 92 3 60 0 0 54 59 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 16. 25. 37. 43. 49. 53. 57. 58. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST 10/28/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 93.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912010 INVEST 10/28/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST 10/28/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)