* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 10/28/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 44 51 59 62 60 52 44 38 29 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 44 51 59 62 60 52 44 38 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 40 46 51 52 47 42 39 32 SHEAR (KT) 36 31 16 12 13 8 22 54 74 88 80 69 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -8 -2 1 -2 -2 1 1 -6 3 16 13 19 SHEAR DIR 235 253 275 267 278 358 211 216 221 227 239 263 265 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 25.6 25.0 24.3 19.3 14.8 13.1 13.4 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 129 127 123 112 109 106 85 77 75 75 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 120 119 114 101 100 99 81 75 73 73 72 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.6 -55.6 -56.0 -55.9 -56.1 -57.0 -57.4 -57.6 -58.0 -57.7 -58.1 -57.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 45 49 48 48 54 41 45 46 56 57 56 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 10 7 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 55 36 27 10 -4 26 52 -9 -13 -4 74 58 62 200 MB DIV -13 -15 10 16 9 95 56 70 45 29 -8 -3 28 LAND (KM) 1098 1016 958 969 1017 1229 1152 983 653 761 1515 542 -17 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.2 24.8 26.0 27.1 30.1 33.4 36.8 41.0 46.2 50.9 54.3 56.4 LONG(DEG W) 56.7 58.2 59.6 61.1 62.6 64.4 62.5 57.5 51.1 43.0 32.2 18.3 3.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 18 17 16 22 30 36 41 44 45 44 HEAT CONTENT 36 23 19 14 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 2. -6. -14. -20. -25. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 22. 29. 32. 30. 22. 14. 8. -1. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 10/28/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 10/28/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 10/28/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)