* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/28/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 33 33 31 26 22 19 22 28 31 31 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 33 33 31 26 22 19 22 28 31 31 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 32 32 32 31 28 25 24 25 29 32 SHEAR (KT) 22 21 22 27 26 40 53 42 31 15 23 37 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -2 -3 0 -3 -6 0 0 1 -2 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 250 250 268 283 288 304 304 292 299 238 221 226 215 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.4 25.4 24.0 22.2 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 123 125 126 126 126 123 119 111 101 91 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 103 107 110 111 112 111 107 105 101 91 82 76 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -56.3 -56.4 -56.2 -55.8 -55.1 -54.8 -55.4 -55.9 -56.4 -57.7 -57.5 -57.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 7 7 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 37 36 32 32 30 31 35 46 58 52 40 40 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 9 8 8 7 6 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -20 -29 -39 -39 -35 -47 -41 35 21 -7 -18 4 200 MB DIV -13 1 -16 -42 -38 -36 -25 32 59 57 36 63 65 LAND (KM) 2445 2456 2467 2460 2407 2210 2015 1981 1911 1662 1448 1373 1485 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.9 26.0 26.5 27.8 29.8 32.5 35.8 38.6 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 41.1 41.5 41.9 42.9 43.8 45.9 48.2 49.3 49.0 47.0 43.6 40.4 36.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 7 9 9 10 9 8 13 19 20 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 12 15 17 18 19 14 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -4. -12. -17. -18. -18. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 14. 17. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -13. -16. -13. -7. -4. -4. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/28/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 10/28/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/28/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)