* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912010 10/28/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 59 70 75 81 87 92 95 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 59 42 32 29 33 32 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 37 40 47 53 39 31 29 32 32 34 SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 6 6 4 2 9 8 17 9 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 5 3 0 6 4 1 3 0 0 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 83 88 214 233 290 244 68 150 163 128 109 105 94 SST (C) 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 170 164 161 163 164 166 158 155 157 161 163 162 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 173 173 174 174 173 164 160 161 165 167 164 162 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -52.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 10 10 9 9 8 9 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 67 64 65 70 74 74 78 79 80 81 85 84 85 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 34 32 33 35 34 30 34 37 33 48 49 60 200 MB DIV 21 31 18 34 31 75 73 88 91 106 83 99 119 LAND (KM) 461 385 317 261 255 144 47 -52 -24 -23 80 18 47 LAT (DEG N) 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.7 9.2 9.6 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 48.6 50.1 51.5 53.2 54.8 57.9 60.5 62.7 64.9 67.0 69.3 71.4 73.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 16 16 14 12 11 11 11 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 80 114 122 78 75 58 7 62 39 55 0 1 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 29. 40. 45. 51. 57. 62. 65. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST 10/28/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 93.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912010 INVEST 10/28/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST 10/28/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)