* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 10/28/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 53 60 62 59 51 43 37 29 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 53 60 62 59 51 43 37 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 43 49 53 51 45 42 40 33 SHEAR (KT) 30 17 16 15 11 9 44 70 88 99 87 65 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 -7 -16 -14 0 11 12 SHEAR DIR 243 254 237 265 283 233 224 223 221 227 241 263 281 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.2 25.3 24.8 23.9 17.7 15.3 13.6 14.0 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 126 123 118 110 108 103 80 78 76 76 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 119 117 114 107 99 100 95 77 75 73 74 73 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -56.8 -57.2 -57.9 -58.6 -58.2 -57.8 -56.6 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 48 47 47 50 45 42 47 57 58 52 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 13 13 12 9 6 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 31 24 9 -10 -16 55 22 -49 -67 -35 71 65 42 200 MB DIV 1 -2 8 7 44 67 56 79 54 38 2 -13 26 LAND (KM) 970 935 929 1008 1117 1160 1072 939 609 877 1384 382 -124 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 25.0 25.8 27.1 28.4 31.6 34.6 37.9 41.9 46.6 50.6 52.9 53.0 LONG(DEG W) 58.7 60.2 61.6 62.9 64.1 64.3 60.7 55.5 49.4 41.3 30.1 15.8 1.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 16 17 24 28 34 40 44 45 44 HEAT CONTENT 23 19 16 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 0. -9. -19. -26. -31. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 23. 26. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 30. 32. 29. 21. 13. 7. -1. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 10/28/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 10/28/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 10/28/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)