* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/28/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 24 24 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 27 21 27 28 33 55 57 58 57 64 62 57 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -4 -2 -3 -6 -9 -6 -1 -6 -4 -1 -7 SHEAR DIR 257 277 288 292 300 308 305 301 304 300 303 303 305 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 124 126 126 127 129 129 129 129 131 133 133 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 108 111 113 113 115 113 111 112 116 118 120 121 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.4 -56.2 -55.6 -55.0 -54.6 -54.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 38 35 33 33 35 37 38 44 46 49 43 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -32 -43 -40 -37 -40 -28 -20 -45 -50 -59 -41 -38 200 MB DIV 6 -9 -50 -41 -38 -59 -15 -44 -30 -46 -16 -24 0 LAND (KM) 2525 2542 2477 2388 2281 2090 1945 1890 1914 1911 1850 1731 1623 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 25.6 25.2 24.9 24.6 24.1 23.5 22.9 22.5 21.9 20.9 19.8 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 41.4 42.1 42.7 43.7 44.7 46.5 47.8 48.2 47.8 47.3 47.0 47.2 47.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 10 9 8 5 2 3 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 15 17 18 20 19 24 25 29 38 39 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 19. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -7. -19. -30. -41. -49. -53. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -14. -23. -32. -40. -46. -49. -53. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/28/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 10/28/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/28/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)