* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912010 10/28/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 49 60 69 75 79 86 90 95 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 49 50 64 70 75 81 85 91 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 39 45 44 56 64 72 81 91 100 SHEAR (KT) 5 2 6 9 3 8 2 4 4 9 6 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 2 2 6 5 6 3 0 -2 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 74 213 278 299 309 267 3 225 126 187 123 164 111 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 160 164 166 168 161 156 155 160 162 162 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 173 174 173 173 168 159 158 162 163 161 158 157 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 11 9 12 8 10 7 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 66 69 70 72 73 75 78 78 82 81 81 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 38 29 24 30 19 24 22 27 31 42 51 63 200 MB DIV 49 40 39 41 65 82 83 71 77 83 72 93 114 LAND (KM) 384 329 296 314 278 171 -10 22 113 132 79 69 170 LAT (DEG N) 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.8 10.4 10.9 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.0 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.9 53.4 55.0 56.5 59.2 61.4 63.5 65.6 67.6 69.6 71.3 72.9 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 16 16 15 12 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 86 83 70 83 93 75 1 2 73 70 83 91 101 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 27. 32. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 30. 39. 45. 49. 56. 60. 65. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST 10/28/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 83.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 40% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 31% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912010 INVEST 10/28/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST 10/28/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)