* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 10/28/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 56 59 55 47 42 35 24 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 56 59 55 47 42 35 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 33 34 39 45 47 45 40 37 35 34 SHEAR (KT) 21 20 13 12 4 25 53 61 79 83 91 79 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 -4 -5 -7 -4 4 SHEAR DIR 240 241 245 259 320 245 217 213 207 232 247 284 308 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.3 24.8 23.9 18.0 15.8 14.8 15.6 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 125 121 115 111 108 102 79 77 77 78 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 117 114 110 102 101 99 93 75 74 75 75 75 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.2 -55.9 -56.1 -56.2 -56.7 -57.2 -58.3 -58.1 -57.9 -58.2 -58.3 -58.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 47 50 48 51 39 39 45 50 51 50 45 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 15 13 13 14 12 10 6 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 17 0 -8 29 33 -2 -33 -46 -57 -56 -105 -119 200 MB DIV 0 -3 2 35 92 40 61 93 88 51 20 -27 -38 LAND (KM) 903 904 938 1045 1125 1194 1114 956 612 739 1478 582 18 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.8 26.6 27.8 29.0 31.8 34.7 37.9 41.6 45.4 48.5 49.4 47.4 LONG(DEG W) 60.6 62.0 63.4 64.5 65.5 63.8 59.3 55.1 50.2 43.7 32.9 17.4 3.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 15 13 20 23 25 28 35 45 49 49 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 12 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 758 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 0. -8. -17. -24. -30. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 26. 29. 25. 17. 12. 5. -6. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 10/28/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 10/28/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 10/28/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)