* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/29/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 28 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 27 26 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 30 34 31 39 50 59 53 53 56 50 43 45 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -1 -6 -7 -6 -9 -7 -4 -6 -1 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 279 299 300 305 310 310 303 303 294 312 316 323 320 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 126 126 128 127 128 127 125 125 126 127 129 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 111 112 114 113 112 109 106 105 108 110 112 114 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.2 -55.8 -55.2 -54.9 -54.3 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -52.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 35 34 34 34 35 35 40 42 46 46 43 42 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -51 -50 -47 -46 -52 -31 -17 -35 -54 -50 -47 -40 200 MB DIV -4 -44 -47 -37 -42 -44 -19 -33 -30 -39 -24 -37 -33 LAND (KM) 2554 2499 2416 2309 2202 2021 1905 1884 1929 1966 1995 1983 1968 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.7 24.9 25.1 24.8 24.2 23.4 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 41.8 42.7 43.5 44.6 45.6 47.4 48.6 48.9 48.5 48.0 47.5 47.4 47.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 9 7 4 1 2 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 16 18 19 19 20 22 21 19 18 19 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -10. -22. -32. -41. -45. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -21. -29. -36. -39. -41. -44. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/29/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -34.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 10/29/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/29/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)