* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912010 10/29/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 53 66 76 83 88 94 98 99 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 53 63 64 70 75 81 85 86 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 40 48 55 56 66 73 81 89 95 SHEAR (KT) 3 1 4 3 2 3 7 7 11 8 9 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 2 5 9 3 0 0 1 -3 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 116 214 19 26 199 352 163 205 170 185 151 217 212 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 165 167 165 159 155 157 161 162 160 159 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 173 173 173 172 164 159 161 164 163 157 154 151 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 11 10 9 10 9 9 7 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 72 71 74 76 78 79 81 83 82 80 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 40 30 23 26 26 20 35 29 31 43 51 68 72 200 MB DIV 74 74 65 84 105 90 114 91 108 66 85 104 114 LAND (KM) 320 293 308 294 218 125 39 29 114 102 119 133 261 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.3 8.6 9.0 9.3 9.8 10.3 10.8 11.6 12.4 13.1 13.7 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 52.1 53.6 55.0 56.3 57.6 59.9 62.1 64.3 66.5 68.6 70.4 71.8 72.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 82 70 84 95 77 24 2 32 77 79 86 93 106 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 27. 32. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 36. 46. 53. 58. 64. 68. 69. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST 10/29/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 81.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 5.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 48% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 42% is 8.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912010 INVEST 10/29/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST 10/29/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)