* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 10/29/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 51 59 64 61 55 46 44 43 37 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 51 59 64 61 55 46 44 33 30 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 46 53 56 50 44 41 41 32 DIS SHEAR (KT) 15 16 4 2 8 41 63 86 78 65 44 19 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 1 1 1 4 0 -11 -10 4 6 10 N/A SHEAR DIR 191 222 281 251 202 213 202 204 236 268 292 290 N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.5 25.3 24.7 23.2 15.7 14.4 14.2 13.7 12.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 120 114 111 111 109 100 78 77 76 74 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 108 103 100 101 102 94 76 74 74 71 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.1 -56.2 -56.0 -56.5 -56.6 -57.5 -57.9 -56.9 -56.5 -57.3 -57.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 42 47 42 35 36 48 48 58 57 61 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 6 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -14 -3 43 85 48 -29 -55 -6 29 71 88 N/A 200 MB DIV 15 6 42 86 68 50 60 67 41 24 8 10 N/A LAND (KM) 982 1067 1146 1170 1112 1006 811 569 1241 799 10 -37 N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.9 29.0 30.6 32.1 35.5 39.4 44.0 48.6 51.5 52.7 53.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.7 63.9 65.0 64.8 64.6 60.0 53.7 46.9 36.1 21.9 9.5 0.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 15 14 16 19 29 33 39 46 43 33 27 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 22 CX,CY: -17/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 6. -2. -10. -17. -20. -20. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 24. 27. 29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 29. 26. 20. 11. 9. 8. 2. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 10/29/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 10/29/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 10/29/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)