* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SHARY AL202010 10/29/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 46 49 57 57 49 39 35 35 31 25 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 46 49 57 57 49 39 35 35 31 25 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 43 46 51 50 42 35 32 33 35 36 SHEAR (KT) 12 4 2 8 25 50 66 75 61 44 45 55 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 5 5 0 4 3 7 12 15 7 SHEAR DIR 191 248 333 219 214 200 198 203 239 244 231 222 223 SST (C) 26.3 25.7 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.2 18.4 17.9 19.5 18.4 17.6 17.5 17.8 POT. INT. (KT) 119 113 110 109 108 105 80 75 77 75 73 73 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 103 98 98 98 98 75 69 69 68 67 67 68 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.0 -55.9 -56.0 -55.9 -56.5 -56.8 -55.7 -57.1 -57.4 -56.5 -56.0 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 37 41 48 49 42 32 39 39 46 46 45 45 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 13 16 14 16 14 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 7 58 89 83 33 -41 -49 -87 6 90 53 -20 200 MB DIV 7 40 92 75 46 60 51 67 32 43 61 45 50 LAND (KM) 1077 1233 1134 1171 1079 955 624 660 820 1024 1239 1446 1702 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 29.8 31.4 32.8 34.2 37.2 41.4 43.5 43.6 44.1 44.3 43.8 43.4 LONG(DEG W) 64.5 64.6 64.7 63.3 61.9 57.0 50.5 46.0 43.6 40.5 37.5 35.0 31.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 18 21 29 26 14 10 11 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 17 CX,CY: -12/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 780 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 6. -2. -10. -16. -19. -23. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 22. 22. 14. 4. 0. 0. -4. -10. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202010 SHARY 10/29/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202010 SHARY 10/29/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202010 SHARY 10/29/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)