* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/29/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 38 37 41 50 60 58 50 60 61 46 46 47 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -6 -5 -8 -11 -3 -9 -3 0 0 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 292 301 305 308 309 301 292 284 289 304 307 313 313 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 126 126 128 129 127 127 125 125 129 133 136 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 113 113 114 114 111 108 104 105 112 117 122 125 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -55.9 -55.6 -55.2 -54.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.2 -52.5 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 33 34 33 35 37 39 43 43 41 35 36 35 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 1 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -57 -57 -55 -69 -61 -39 -35 -42 -62 -53 -49 -35 200 MB DIV -35 -45 -46 -43 -41 1 -27 -10 -40 -27 -42 -34 -45 LAND (KM) 2516 2408 2298 2187 2076 1910 1838 1823 1851 1808 1716 1605 1462 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.2 25.1 25.4 25.7 25.7 24.9 23.7 22.3 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 42.6 43.7 44.8 45.9 47.0 48.7 49.6 49.9 49.6 49.7 50.2 50.9 52.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 9 6 3 0 2 5 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 17 19 20 21 23 24 22 26 30 34 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 5. 1. -9. -23. -36. -45. -50. -52. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -21. -31. -38. -41. -41. -45. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/29/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -42.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902010 INVEST 10/29/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/29/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)