* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SHARY AL202010 10/29/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 43 47 49 47 39 30 25 25 23 18 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 43 47 49 47 39 30 25 25 23 18 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 41 43 40 34 29 27 28 30 DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 4 13 31 38 67 69 68 54 58 47 48 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 7 4 5 7 20 16 12 19 N/A SHEAR DIR 151 212 227 228 212 195 201 227 245 268 250 243 N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.4 25.3 25.0 24.7 22.7 16.4 15.2 13.6 13.7 14.3 14.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 110 111 110 109 98 78 74 69 68 68 69 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 99 101 103 103 93 75 70 66 64 64 65 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.9 -55.9 -55.6 -55.4 -56.2 -55.9 -54.3 -54.8 -57.5 -57.6 -56.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 47 43 41 39 33 41 43 48 56 63 53 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 11 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 46 72 66 61 10 14 49 15 33 67 5 N/A 200 MB DIV 29 90 60 35 53 41 44 22 12 24 43 32 N/A LAND (KM) 1140 1124 1112 1114 1010 766 677 1102 1500 1233 1035 795 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 30.7 32.1 33.8 35.5 39.8 44.8 48.2 50.2 51.1 50.8 50.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.9 65.3 64.6 62.3 59.9 53.3 44.8 38.0 32.4 28.1 25.1 21.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 20 26 30 37 35 25 17 12 11 12 N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 17 CX,CY: -11/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 829 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 5. -4. -11. -18. -21. -24. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 12. 4. -5. -10. -10. -12. -17. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202010 SHARY 10/29/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202010 SHARY 10/29/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202010 SHARY 10/29/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)