* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912010 10/29/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 44 54 63 70 75 79 85 89 93 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 44 54 63 70 75 79 85 89 93 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 34 36 39 46 51 56 61 66 73 81 85 SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 4 2 8 8 13 7 8 7 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 8 14 10 5 1 0 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 83 87 159 200 285 173 222 205 221 202 257 233 208 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 163 160 159 157 157 163 161 161 160 160 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 172 168 163 161 159 159 165 163 160 155 151 148 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -51.7 -52.3 -51.7 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 9 8 9 7 8 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 70 70 71 75 78 78 79 79 77 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 7 9 9 10 10 12 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 27 24 17 14 14 34 27 26 41 49 71 82 95 200 MB DIV 83 99 117 117 111 112 63 85 81 93 107 110 96 LAND (KM) 370 307 282 207 98 78 124 214 163 143 250 339 266 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.8 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.4 11.8 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 55.7 56.9 58.1 59.1 60.1 62.1 64.2 66.5 68.9 71.2 73.1 74.4 75.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 94 82 85 90 88 12 66 71 86 86 105 108 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 22. 26. 31. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 14. 24. 33. 40. 45. 49. 55. 59. 63. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST 10/29/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 87.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 49% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 43% is 9.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912010 INVEST 10/29/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912010 INVEST 10/29/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)